Understanding Choices Made (06-22-20)

Jung, Moon, and Nelson studied how people think about the experiences of other people.  They determined that “people overestimate the valuations and preferences of others. This overestimation arises because, when making predictions about others, people rely on their intuitive core representation of the experience (e.g., is the experience generally positive?) in lieu of a more complex representation that might also include countervailing aspects (e.g., is any of the experience negative?). . . . the overestimation bias is pervasive for a wide range of positive . . . and negative experiences. . . . the bias significantly reduces when the core representation is uniformly positive. . . .relative to themselves, people believe that an identically paying other will get more enjoyment from the same experience, but paradoxically, that an identically enjoying other will pay more for the same experience. . . . explicitly prompting people to consider the entire distribution of others' preferences significantly reduced or eliminated the bias.”

Minah Jung, Alice Moon, and Leif Nelson. 2020.  “Overestimating the Valuations and Preferences of Others.”  Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, vol. 149, no. 6, pp. 1193-1214, doi: 10.1037/xge0000700